Dr. Piyara Lal Garg
(Former Registrar, Baba Farid Medical College, Faridkot, Punjab)
Since yesterday, it has been made prominent part of the news stories in electronic media that corona has resurged in China and there is an extreme danger to the world. Further that China as is not giving out the correct figures of the pandemic. As such the scare of shortage of raw materials for the drug industry of Badi –Bartiwala-Nalagarh , Paonta Sahib and Kala Amb has been predicted. It is said that scarcity of drugs and scare may be even fake but the drug prices have already hiked by 20%. With total 158 new cases in India on Nov. 19 , Government has issued advisory. Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandvia has asked Rahul Gandhi to follow Covid-19 Protocol during Bharat Jodo Yatra.
It has been informed that three cases of COVID with Omicron sub-variant BF . 7 have been detected in India and some are said have claimed even that the patient came from China. However regarding these three cases, as per Indian Express (22.12.2022) two are said to have been detected in Gujarat one in Vadodara in September 61 year old lady came from USA had been vaccinated with three doses of Pfizer vaccine. Another in Ahmadabad in November 57 year male from Australia . The third one in Odissa tested +ve before flying to US . and the parent sub variant BA.5 had been found in 2.5% of the samples sequenced in India already.
World wide figures ( Worldometer ) depict that the surge has occurred in USA, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil , Japan and world over around 5.9 lakh cases are detected daily on an average with the increasing trends over last six weeks. In India 158 cases detected on December 19.
In India some intellectuals are handing out the intelligent analysis from various sources of eminence and making out that there shall be 80 crore people in China who shall suffer from corona around 10% of world population . The reasons of such fast and heavy spread as given by them are that China had zero tolerance policy on COVID and as such the population has been deprived of the Herd Immunity, 2ndly they claim that China did not use Pfizer vaccine that is of high quality and used their own poor quality Chinese vaccine. Thirdly that rate of vaccination in China is very low.
IHME Director Christopher Murray has claimed that the next few months are likely to be quite challenging for China, as the populations at greatest risk in the world are those that have avoided a lot of transmission and have gaps in vaccination.
However as per US News and World report on corona Anthony Fauci the leading expert of infectious diseases the large transmission of virus allows mutations and the mutations lead to new variants. The asymptomatic infections in China are not tracked. Various models projecting COVID death toll in China is over 10 lakh deaths by end of 2023. Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation has estimated that peak shall by around 1st April and by then death toll shall be reaching 3,22,000.
Comparing the data of cases death toll, use of Pfizer Vaccine quality of Vaccine , and rate of vaccination in countries of present surge that is China , USA , South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil and Japan and comparing the cases and case mortality rate in neighbouring countries of china like India , Bangla Desh , Pakistan etc even a casual look clearly depicts that the intentions and politics have overpowered the facts and data science in the analysis of the above authorities for the reasons obvious.
Transmission : In USA 10.2 crore (10,20,48,475) persons have suffered from COVID -19 out of a total Population of 33.48 crore ( 33,48,05,269) that is each 3rd person has tested +ve.
In South Korea 2.84 crore (2, 84, 66,390) out of 5.13 crore) 5, 13, 29,899 that is each 2nd person has tested +ve.
Taiwan 86 lakh ( 82,24,680) out of 2.39 crore ( 2,38,88,595) that is each 3rd person has tested +ve.
Japan 2.76 crore( 2,75,81,407) out of 12.56 lakh ( 12,55,84,838) that is each 5th person has tested +ve.
Brazil 3.6 crore ( 3,60,36,035) out of 21.53 crore ( 21,53,53,593) that is each 6th person has tested +ve.
In India 4.47 crore (4, 46, 77,594) out of 140.66 crore (140, 66, 31,776) that is each 31st person has tested +ve.
As such transmission factor is very high in USA, South Korea , Taiwan, Japan and Brazil and those shoud have not been that highly affected by the present surge and India , Pakisatan , Bangla Desh that have very low transmission factor should have been affected very badly but is not so.
Herd Immunity: It depends on the percentage of population affected. for each one +ve case it is estimated that many asymptomatic or mild cases remain undetected as such in accordance with the principles of science of herd immunity and spread of pandemic , herd immunity should have developed naturally in USA , South Korea , and Taiwan , but not in India , Pakisatan and Bangla desh . So this claim also does not hold ground.
Use of Pfizer Vaccine: US has used Pfizer vaccine on large scale,
Quality of Vaccine: Majority of current victim countries except China has not used Chinese made vaccine, as such that claim also has no legs to stand.
Coverage by Immunisation: Majority of current victim countries except China have done extensive coverage by corona vaccine, as such this claim also fails in face of facts.
Prediction of cases and death toll in China under current surge is also unable to stand the principles of analysis of available data on COVID -19 by WHO accepted data chart.
By India standards if China suffers 80 crore cases then death should be around 80 lakh only and not 10 lakh.
By standards of other countries if 10 lakh Chinese are to die then cases cannot be more than 10 crore by US A standards and at the most 20 crore by projections of averages from available figures and standards of the globe.
We have to be cautious, but creating of Panic, rising prices of drugs, scarcity of drugs, and China bashing may not be helpful, with whatever motive same are done.
